Our Take on the 2017 USDA Acreage Report

A lot of interesting reports are coming out of the USDA at this time of year. The USDA Acreage report confirmed the data from the prior quarter’s Prospective Plantings report: corn acres are down, soy acres are at a record high, wheat acres are at a long-time low, and cotton acres are up.

More acreage planted to soybeans seemed like a sure bet last year during planning in the US, particularly since the lower input cost was attractive to farmers on the edge of profitability. However, it will be very interesting to see if the world’s demand for soybeans can keep up with production. US prices remain strong so far, with some contract highs for beans and meal, but analysts expect that soy prices will settle back down as the world demand for soybeans is strongly served by Brazil and Argentina. With both countries facing faltering economies, selling commodities for dollars is a hedge against inflation of their native currencies. Brazil is on pace for record-setting soybean production, exceeding all predictions with excellent yields despite slightly lower acreage.

Acreage also reports the area planted to biotechnology varieties, and whether those varieties are Insect Resistant (IR), Herbicide Tolerant (HT), or stacked with both. This year is pretty much on par with 2015 and 2016 as far as the limited but steady percentage of non-GMO acreage. It has been interesting over the years to see the rise in biotech acreage, as well as the growing popularity of stacked varieties.

USDA acreage report charts

Winter Wheat Harvest Woes

Wheat harvest season is well underway for many U.S. wheat growers. Some of the first soft-red wheat harvested by U.S. farmers in 2015 is the worst in at least 17 years, according to Bloomberg and other sources.

This year’s heavy rainfalls  – up to three times the normal amount – have made mycotoxin diseases like vomitoxin more prominent in many wheat-growing states.

USDA scouts recently noted that “there have been reports of elevators rejecting wheat loads due to the presence of vomitoxin,” a toxic fungal residue, also known as Deoxynialenol or DON. “Winter wheat left unharvested continues to have quality issues, including problems with scab, sprouting and mold,” the scouts added. In Michigan, official scouts said that “intermittent rain showers limited the amount of winter wheat harvested this week – moisture levels were reported as high, and some growers reported vomitoxin issues.” And in Ohio, USDA staff said that “some wheat has been of such poor quality, it is not able to be sold.”

Soft-red winter wheat is typically sold to mills and turned into flour, which is then used to make consumer products like crackers and cookies. However, the poor quality of this year’s winter wheat harvest means that it may only consumable in animal feed. According to the USDA Risk Management Agency, high levels of vomitoxin may result in either a discount in price or the requirement to destroy the grain.

So how can you avoid contamination in your crops? There is no sure DON prevention, as environmental conditions play a big part. However, there are several good practices for controlling it such as crop rotation, choosing a variety with some resistance, applying fungicides in a timely manner and tillage practices. Iowa State University engineer Charles Hurburgh warns that storing wet grain, even overnight and especially without aeration, shortens its life considerably. You should check it weekly, monitoring for spikes in the temperature, and test it regularly for evidence of DON or other mycotoxins.